[Robert Pearl] Endemic COVID-19 should be cause for celebration, not dismay

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[Robert Pearl] Endemic COVID-19 should be cause for celebration, not dismay

Most leading immunologists predict that COVID-19 will one day become an endemic, persistent but manageable threat, comparable to seasonal influenza, perhaps by the end of 2022.

It would be quite a turnaround from today.

All things considered, the possibility of COVID-19 becoming rampant (just another American annoyance) should be cause for great celebration.

So why is the impending transition from pandemic to endemic not great news?

Part of the answer involves the media themselves: “That SARS-CoV-2 can be with us forever is a dark thought,” read the New York Times on the same day Health magazine asked: “When will it be over?” “and replied:” Unfortunately … never. “

Why so sullen? You see, at the start of the pandemic, the headlines reflected what experts believed to be true: that the pandemic would soon end with herd immunity. All we needed was 70% of the American population to get vaccinated or recover from COVID-19. And no later than summer 2021, this destination seemed accessible. We thought we had COVID-19 on the ropes, ready to deliver a clean knockout blow. So our nation’s collective hope, sparkling one moment and vanished the next, helps explain why the news of endemicity is now so grim.

After all, Americans don’t compare their feelings about a rampant COVID-19 future to their wildest fears in March 2020. Instead, the benchmark – that thing that gave hope before it’s ripped off – is newer. For some, it could have been a Wall Street Journal headline from February 2021: “We’ll have collective immunity by April.” Or the joys of May when even the most cautious of us went without a mask and got ready for “Hot Vax Summer”.

Now here we are, viewing the possibility of rampant COVID with dismay and disappointment rather than unbridled optimism that one day we will have battled this formidable foe to a draw.

What our nation’s collective mental state needs now is a healthy dose of perspective. For that, here is a trio of useful reminders:

1. We would never achieve endemicity without an effective vaccine. It is now difficult to assess just how threatening the COVID-19 forecast was for most of 2020. In June of that year, the US government placed an $ 18 billion bet on a moon blow of health care center called Operation Warp Speed ​​in the hope that scientists would develop and deliver 300 million doses of safe and effective vaccine by the new year.

The success was far from being won in advance. Before COVID-19 vaccines, the fastest ever developed was four years old (mumps). Almost all of them took five years or more. Without incredible luck and even more incredible science, we would still be years away from a safe and effective vaccine.

2. Regardless of the variant, the number of deaths will decrease with endemicity. In our current reality, the delta variant causes over 1,000 daily deaths from COVID-19 (based on a seven-day moving average). This will no longer be the case when our nation reaches endemicity. According to White House Chief Medical Advisor Dr Anthony Fauci, Americans living in an endemic world “will still be infected” and “may still be hospitalized,” but the rates of new cases and hospitalizations will be so low that COVID-19 will not have a negative impact on our society, our economy or our daily life.

3. Endemic COVID-19 will not be worse than seasonal flu. Thanks to a combination of increased vaccinations, boosters and new antiviral treatments, the chance of dying from endemic COVID-19 will be 90-95% lower than at the start of 2020. This reflects a death rate of between 0.05 % and 0.1%, similar to what Americans experience with the flu.

Ask yourself: if we were hoping that COVID-19 wouldn’t be more dangerous than the flu at the start of the pandemic, shouldn’t we be celebrating this result when it actually happens?

Of course, COVID-19 won’t be exactly like the flu when it’s rampant. For example, COVID-19 cases will not go away completely every summer and return the following winter like the flu. Instead, the variation will be more geographic and manageable locally. But, compared to the risk, the two diseases will be equivalent, which is to be rejoiced.

It’s easy to understand how difficult it is for Americans to embrace the rampant COVID-19. Regardless of the opponent, we find it hard to accept a draw when victory once seemed imminent. But make no mistake, endemicity will be a triumph for our nation. Whether it takes a year or more, don’t mourn the opportunity when it presents itself. Celebrate the accomplishment.

Robert pearl
Robert Pearl is a clinical professor of plastic surgery at Stanford University School of Medicine and a faculty member at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. He wrote this for Fulcrum, a non-profit, non-partisan news platform covering efforts to fix our systems of governance. – Ed.

(Tribune content agency)

By Korea Herald (khnews@heraldcorp.com)