Auburn’s march to relevance once again under coach Bruce Pearl seems like fate in the making. Before we get that far, let’s remember that the NCAA Tournament can turn favorites into foils in just 40 minutes.
There’s every reason to believe the Tigers will move on to the Sweet 16 when they face No. 10 seed Miami on Sunday night (tip 7:45 a.m. ET). The Tigers are pretty much a touchdown favorite in the game. It’s 7 1/2 points to be exact. Auburn has better players and better coaching. Auburn also gave no indication it was ready for an early exit from the NCAA Tournament with its first 80-61 win over Jacksonville State.
Returning to the Sweet 16 would be a major step in the right direction for a program that was ineligible last season due to self-imposed penalties stemming from NCAA violations – although at 13-14 they won’t. weren’t going anyway. Auburn’s top brass seem to think the Tigers are on the right track. They won earlier this week with a major contract for Pearl, which will average $6.25 million per year for the next 8 seasons. In the SEC, it’s called football money. Pearl’s recent history made the decision to extend the huge offer a little surprising. The timing was also a bit odd. However, it could be argued that Pearl deserved the new contract.
Pearl has a memorable run in the Final Four on his Auburn record, but that happened in 2018-19. Sure, COVID got in the way, but that seems like a long time ago or, as the kids say, “It’s been a minute.” Auburn and Pearl put serious pressure on each other with the new contract. Yes, Pearl won the SEC regular-season championship this season, but there seemed no logical reason for Auburn to be so generous ahead of the NCAA Tournament, where Pearl and any coach will ultimately be judged. Ask Rick Barnes.
If Pearl and Auburn lose to Miami on Sunday, then the opponents will be strong. Well, at least they won’t be talking about beleaguered football coach Bryan Harsin. Can Auburn lose to Miami? Certainly. Are they going? Probably not.
Auburn has two players expected to be selected in the first round of the NBA Draft: forward Jabari Smith Jr. and center Walker Kessler. Miami has a player appearing on the NBA draft projections. Guard Kam McGusty is believed to be a potential second-round pick. The Tigers clearly have better talent than the Hurricanes.
The coaching advantage also goes to Auburn, but that’s more debatable. Pearl has enjoyed far more recent success than Miami’s Jim Larrañaga, who made a Final Four appearance as coach of George Mason. However, Larranaga didn’t turn the Hurricanes into some sort of Final Four contender. The ‘Canes have only made the Sweet 16 once in Larranaga’s 10 full seasons in Coral Gables. Pearl made the Sweet 16 or better for 3 seasons when he coached Tennessee from 2005 to 2010. Then his career was put on hold due to issues with the NCAA before he was named to rebuild Auburn. Pearl’s enthusiasm rubs some people the wrong way, but his results are hard to argue when the NCAA isn’t involved.
If Auburn loses to Miami, we can look back at the signs of why the Tigers’ season ended in disappointment. Auburn finished the season with a 5-4 record before earning a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Miami has won 7 of its last 9 games and was certainly a challenge for Duke in the ACC Tournament before losing 80-76 to the Blue Devils.
Momentum may be the only advantage Miami has over Auburn on Sunday. The No. 10-seeded Canes beat No. 7 Southern California 68-66 to advance to the second round. Auburn was never really tested in its opener, beating Jacksonville State 80-61.
If Miami is able to upset Auburn on Sunday, turnovers will be a likely reason. Miami is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to protecting the ball and creating turnovers. The ‘Canes rank 6th in the NCAA in turnover margin. Auburn, however, is no slouch at No. 39 in the nation.
Auburn will certainly be keeping a close eye on second-year guard Isaiah Wong. He scored 22 points in Miami’s first-round win. Wong tends to get hot. It was evident against the Trojans when he scored all 13 points for Miami in 8 minutes. When Wong’s teammates aren’t playing well or have decided to take a break, Wong is a guy Miami can turn to.
There will never be any shame in doing the Sweet 16. It’s an accomplishment for any program. However, failing to achieve this feat would open Pearl and Auburn to some criticism, especially after accepting this monster contract. After the Harsin fiasco, no one wants to look stupid on the Plains anymore.